Expert: Trump is top risk for 2017
A U. S. consulting firm has released its annual list of the biggest threats facing the world. The report says the leading risk in 2017 is a United States led by Donald Trump. The global political risk research firm the Eurasia Group says Trump’s “America First” policy is built on the American value of independence. But it said Trump, that means independence from responsibility to play central role in world affairs. The report predicted the power vacuum left by his policies might create global chaos, especially in Europe.
-Please sum up in one word your expectations of the new presidency.
–Uncertainty. There’s a couple of small areas where we expect him to be very aggressive, such as enforcing immigration laws and cracking down on trade with China and trade with Mexico. But even in those areas, there is such a wide range of things he could do that there’s lot of uncertainty about how he’s going to go about doing that. So, I think that for most people, what you’re going to see is a very unpredictable president and a lot of uncertainty about the policy environment.
-The idea of “America First” is a very transactional idea that sees America’s relationship with its trading partners and its allies in the world as a zero-sum game. I think that reflects Donald Trump’s worldview. The change I expect to see are ones that make him a much more forceful advocate for United states workers, I particular, and upend a lot of the global trading order that has been established over the last 50 years.
-The election of a president who says “America First.” Is this the end of Pax Americana?
-I think it’s a first step towards the end of Pax Americana. Trump has … threatened to withdraw from a number of international agreements, like the WTO, NATO, NAFTA. And I think this really upends the U.S. influence in the world and forces the U.S. to … withdraw from its influential position, leaving a large vacuum with nobody, with a lot of uncertainty about who’s going to fill that vacuum.
What the Trump campaign has really exposed is that, at least in recent years, the melting pot has broken down. And you’ve got some real tensions between people that have been here for a generation or two or three, and people that are newly arriving in this country. And those tensions have really come to the forefront during the Trump campaign. Some of that’s driven by economic anxiety. Some of that’s driven by true racing tension.